Direct measurement of groundwater recharge is difficult due to the heterogeneity and complexity of recharge processes ( Kinzelbach et al. In order to achieve this goal, adequate knowledge of groundwater systems and evaluation of the groundwater resources with regard to the impacts of climate change is necessary ( Carrera-Hernández & Gaskin 2006 Chenini & Ben Mammou 2010). To manage groundwater in a sustainable manner, it is essential to conserve groundwater resources for infinite time without any unsuitable economic or social outcomes ( Alley et al. Sensitivity of groundwater response to climate change is associated with the aquifer size and groundwater depth, with shallow and small aquifers being more variable to climate change ( Lee et al. Thus, future changes of the groundwater under climate change should be considered more seriously by politicians and managers ( Calbo 2010 Boithias et al. (2012) demonstrated that groundwater recharge is highly related to projected precipitation changes. Climate change on different time scales, including inter-annual to multi-decadal time scales, appears to affect groundwaters in terms of levels and recharge ( Tremblay et al. There is evidence that groundwater is an essential parameter of water supply systems in arid and semi-arid areas of the world ( Scanlon et al. There is wide agreement that climate change has caused noticeable fluctuations in the hydrological cycle and will impact on the availability of water resources, either surface water or groundwater. These changes are expected to include increasing temperature and precipitation patterns ( Seiler et al. The International Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) demonstrated that climate change is occurring on a global scale ( Mackay 2008). In arid and semi-arid regions, the intensive use of groundwater resources has often affected groundwater levels and water quality ( Foster & Louks 2006 Lachaal et al. Over the last decades, groundwaters are considered as substantial water resources in many parts of the world, especially in developing countries ( Shah 2007 Acharyya 2014). The results of this study are useful to obtain sustainable groundwater management in Yazd-Ardakan aquifer. Scenario 3 is capable of restoring and protecting the groundwater resources in Yazd-Ardakan aquifer. Reduction in pumping water under scenario 2 (irrigation system modification) and scenario 3 (irrigation system modification and cropping patterns ) will result in groundwater level fluctuation of about −0.32 and 0.08 m year −1, respectively. Climate change and human pressures (scenario 1) will reduce aquifer storage and result in decreasing hydraulic head by −0.56 m year −1. Three scenarios were simulated to represent the effects of climate change and human pressures on aquifer storage and hydraulic head. Human pressures on the aquifer were modeled through climate change impacts on water requirements of cultivated areas.
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Input for groundwater recharge time series under the climate change scenarios were derived using a regression equation based on the cumulative deviation from mean rainfall using MATLAB.
Water levels in the study aquifer were simulated using three-dimensional finite-difference groundwater model (MODFLOW 2000) with GMS 8.3 as pre- and postprocessing software. This paper analyzes the impacts of climate change and human pressures on Yazd-Ardakan aquifer using the Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3 (HADCM 3) circulation Model and A 2 emission scenario.
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